Climate change in Manchester and the North West

Climate change will have affects on the climate of North West England. Below are the future climate change projections for the 2050s and 2080s in North West England, based on medium emissions.

Changes for the 2050s under the medium emissions scenario indicate the following temperature projections:

WARMER WINTERS: The central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3ºC (10% and 90% probability levels respectively).
WARMER SUMMERS: The central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.1ºC (10% and 90% probability levels respectively).
WETTER WINTERS: The central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 13%; it is very unlikely to be less than 3% and is very unlikely to be more than 26% (10% and 90% probability levels respectively).
DRIER SUMMERS: The central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –18%; it is very unlikely to be less than –36% and is very unlikely to be more than 1% (10% and 90% probability levels respectively).

Changes for the 2080s under the medium emissions scenario indicate indicate the following temperature projections:

WARMER WINTERS: The central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4ºC (10% and 90% probability levels respectively).
WARMER SUMMERS: The central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 3.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.9ºC (10% and 90% probability levels respectively).
WETTER WINTERS: The central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 16%; it is very unlikely to be less than 3% and is very unlikely to be more than 34% (10% and 90% probability levels respectively).
DRIER SUMMERS: The central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is –22%; it is very unlikely to be less than – 43% and is very unlikely to be more than 0% (10% and 90% probability levels respectively).

(Based on UKCIP 2009 data and relative to the 1961-1990 baseline period).